India plans to increase its Russian crude oil imports in September, defying the new 50% tariffs imposed by the U.S. to pressure India into ceasing trade with Russia. The U.S. government, under President Donald Trump, accuses India of profiting from discounted Russian oil, while Indian officials cite “double standards,” noting that the EU and U.S. continue to buy billions of dollars in Russian goods. BNP Paribas analysts do not believe the tariffs will significantly impact India’s imports.
The planned increase in imports is estimated to be between 10-20% from August levels, amounting to 150,000-300,000 barrels per day. This is partly due to Russia having more oil available for export after recent Ukrainian attacks took 17% of its refining capacity offline. In August, India imported 1.5 million barrels per day, covering about 40% of its oil needs and making it the largest buyer of seaborne Russian crude. Russian Urals crude is currently being sold to India at a steeper discount of $2-3 per barrel, which is cheaper than the discounts offered in August.