According to industry officials, high U.S. tariffs and potential anti-dumping duties on Indian solar panel exports are expected to worsen an existing supply glut in India as domestic bidding slows. The 50% tariff will severely restrict sales to the U.S., which accounts for 90% of India’s module exports. The situation could worsen if a petition for anti-dumping duties on imports from India, Indonesia, and Laos is successful. Raj Prabhu, CEO of Mercom Capital, stated that the tariffs will “squeeze margins” and make U.S. competition tougher.
The domestic market is also experiencing a slowdown in project tenders, leading to a warning from the Power Ministry for developers to bid cautiously. An analyst from Wood Mackenzie projects that India will face overcapacity in 2026, which will be exacerbated by the loss of the U.S. market. Despite government incentives that have doubled module production capacity to 74 GW by March, factories are operating at only 25% of their total capacity on average. Finding new markets is challenging because Indian-made modules are more expensive than Chinese ones. The article also notes that a mandate for domestic cell use from June 2026 may lead to a short-term increase in Chinese cell imports as companies stockpile before the regulation takes effect.