The volume of Russian crude oil imports by Indian refiners is expected to remain at November’s high levels through December 2025. This steady flow is being driven by rising discounts on Russian Urals and a recent personal assurance from President Vladimir Putin to India regarding uninterrupted energy supplies. According to the Finland-based Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), India’s purchases may even see a slight increase as cargoes loaded before the latest US Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) sanctions are delivered throughout the month.
Data from Kpler indicates that Moscow currently accounts for approximately 36.3% of India’s cumulative crude oil imports, totaling around 1.83 million barrels per day (mb/d). While private refiners saw a marginal reduction in their intake, state-owned refineries significantly increased their Russian crude volumes by 22% month-on-month in November. This shift occurs as the discount on Urals widened to an average of $6.66 per barrel below Brent, making it a highly attractive option despite tightening Western sanctions.
To navigate supply line disruptions caused by the US, UK, and EU, Russia has increasingly relied on “shadow tankers” to maintain its export volume to India. In November alone, G7+ tankers transported only 27% of Russian crude, while these shadow vessels accounted for a growing share of the logistics. Analysts note that despite the average Urals price falling to $55 per barrel, it remains above the newly established price cap of $47.6, reflecting the complex economic balancing act between Indian refiners and global regulators.