The global silver market is expected to face significant tightening from January 2026 as China, the world’s second-largest silver miner, introduces new export curbs. The policy requires Chinese companies to obtain state licenses to ship the metal, a move aimed at protecting “national resources” for domestic industries like solar panels and electronics. Experts warn that this could push the annual global silver deficit from its current 2,500 tonnes to more than 5,000 tonnes.
India has already shown record physical demand, importing over 2,600 tonnes in September and October alone. This surge in Indian buying coincides with a massive accumulation of 23,437 tonnes of physical silver by JP Morgan, which recently closed its extensive silver short positions. The UK and Hong Kong have emerged as the primary suppliers for India’s recent imports, with suspected silver leasing from China fueling shipments through Hong Kong.
The price of silver has already surged nearly 115% this year, far outpacing gold’s growth, as physical deficits and demand for green energy technologies drive the market. Analysts suggest China may be using its 60-70% control of global silver supply as a geopolitical tool, similar to previous rare earth export limits. With the US and Canada reporting shortages of silver coins and bars, the upcoming export restrictions are expected to drive prices sharply higher starting next month.