- Red Sea & Shipping:
- Missile Attacks: Continuous missile attacks in the Red Sea since May.
- Traffic Decline: Traffic through Bab al-Mandab decreased by over 50% between June 10-16.
- Shipping Tonne-Miles Increase: Highest surge in shipping tonne-miles since 2010 due to Red Sea attacks.
- Houthi Missile Attack: A new “long-range” missile fired at another MSC container ship.
- Port Congestion: Slight easing with 2.24m TEU at anchorages; global port congestion at 7.5% of the global fleet.
- Terminal Strikes: Carriers reviewing schedules due to another strike disrupting the Wilhelmshaven terminal.
- Rate Increases: Recent rate increases follow the same pattern as the first wave of COVID-19.
- Newbuilding Delivery: The peak newbuilding delivery phase has passed; container fleet has reached 30m TEU.
- Maersk Record Deal: Maersk sets a new chartering record at $150,000 per day.
- Indian Importers: Turning to bulkers as container line capacity struggles.
- Transit Times: Stabilization with slight improvement to UK and US Gulf Coast.
- Bunker Costs: Increasing due to rising oil prices.
Trade Lane Insights:
- Asia to Europe: Rates exceed $10K per 40’ to the Mediterranean.
- Potential port strikes in Germany and France may add pressure.
- Equipment shortages in Asia and increased congestion.
- Full bookings through July.
- Asia to North America: Significant rate increases, especially to the US West Coast.
- Tight space with high demand.
- Panama Canal stabilizing, carriers improving transit times.
- Asia to South America: Strong rate levels.
- Asia to LATAM: Fast-growing trade, particularly to Mexico.
- Highest rates in a year, heavy congestion in Brazil and Mexico.
- Europe to Asia: Lack of backhaul rate increases.
- Europe to North America: Stable capacity and demand despite growing congestion in North American and European Mediterranean ports.
- Intra-Asia: Stabilized rates to Australia.
- Increased port congestion, particularly in Singapore.
- Some services to Australia fully booked.
- India Exports: Continued blanking of sailings, new services connecting to the Red Sea.
- Global carrier schedule reliability impacting arrivals and departures.
Current Situation:
- Dubai to Europe Rates: Highest levels of the year, driven by a shift to airfreight as ocean rates rise.
- E-Commerce Growth: Leading the growth of airfreight for 2024.
- Global Air Cargo Capacity: Up 9.7% compared to 2019 between May 6 and June 2, 2024.
- Signs of an upturn in the last four weeks.
- Freighter Flights: Historic highs out of China and Hong Kong, with over 300 daily departures.
- Summer Schedules: Northeast Asia widebody belly cargo capacity experiences double-digit growth.
Trade Lane Insights:
- Exports from China/Hong Kong:
- Strong demand driven by e-commerce and cross-border trade.
- Capacity issues due to charters canceling flights and increasing rate pressure.
- Exports from Southeast Asia:
- 21% rise in tonnage YoY in May, with air cargo rates up nearly 12%.
- Potential for further increases in ocean-to-air volume shifts if ocean rates continue escalating.
- Exports from Bangladesh:
- Rates to Europe have fallen somewhat from April and May levels.
- Most origin airports experiencing backlogs and surging rates.
- Exports from Europe:
- Stable market.
- Fraport working on increasing cargo capacity in Frankfurt.
- Exports from North America:
- Steady export demand from all markets.
- US airports running at a normal pace, with increasing capacity into Europe.