The container shipping industry in 2025 is expected to see continued growth, particularly in trade with the US and Europe, driven by government policies and trade dynamics. While growth with Africa is anticipated to be slower, the US market’s expansion is considered inevitable. Major shipping lines like MSC are prepared to adjust their services and capacity based on observed trade growth, potentially adding direct services or enhancing existing ones. The development of port infrastructure, like Vizhinjam as a transshipment hub, is also a key factor influencing growth and efficiency.
Port congestion remains a significant challenge, particularly at major ports like Nhava Sheva and Mundra. The lack of terminal space and the time required for new developments suggest that congestion could persist until at least 2026. Shipping lines are exploring strategies like direct services to reduce congestion caused by transshipments. The ongoing Red Sea crisis, with the Houthi issue unresolved, is diverting ships around the Cape of Good Hope. This longer route is expected to continue throughout 2025, adding to transit times and potentially absorbing some of the overcapacity in the market.
The realignment of alliances in the shipping industry, such as MSC’s departure from its alliance with Maersk, provides greater flexibility for individual lines to adjust capacity. While overcapacity exists, the Red Sea situation and the need to scrap older vessels to comply with environmental regulations are helping to manage it. Looking ahead to 2025, industry players emphasize the importance of flexible government policies that avoid restrictive regulations on foreign-flag vessels, as such measures could negatively impact Indian trade. The development of Indian flag tonnage is expected to be a gradual process.