The India-UK Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) delivers a projected 7–10% tariff advantage in the UK market, shielding 85% of Indian steel exports from impending UK safeguard measures. The export margins saved by avoiding the punitive 50% out-of-quota safeguard duties will help Indian producers fund the capital expenditures required for deep decarbonization ahead of the UK’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), effective January 2027. Although India’s steel exports to the UK accounted for just 0.085% of its total output in FY26 (137,100 tonnes out of 161.7 million tonnes), the deal secures country-specific quotas for the remaining 15% of trade, preserving a reliable pathway for traditional volumes.