With U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports holding steady at 30%, importers accelerated shipments throughout June to beat anticipated hikes in Q3. However, the early-July slowdown has caused ocean spot rates to retreat, signaling a potential pre-peak seasonal softening.
Adding to uncertainty, new U.S. CBP “carrier entrance fees” on Chinese-built ships are under consideration—potentially disrupting importers’ route planning and budget forecasting for the remainder of 2024.
Ocean Freight: Rates Slide After Early Peak
Transpacific ocean freight appears to have peaked prematurely:
- Asia→U.S. West Coast spot rates fell ~2.7% to ~$5,840/FEU.
- Asia→East Coast rates remain elevated around $7,100/FEU.
- Freightos FBX shows:
- Asia→U.S. up 9%
- Asia→Europe up 6%
- Asia→Mediterranean up 13%
Despite the early surge, carriers’ mid-June GRIs (General Rate Increases) largely failed, suggesting weaker forward demand and potentially falling rates in H2.
Port & Terminal Operations: Delays Deepen Globally
Congestion continues to pressure operations at global terminals:
- U.S. Ports: East and West Coasts face 3–5 day delays.
- Asia Hubs: Shanghai, Singapore, Busan, Mundra report 10–14 day anchorage wait times.
- India:
- Mundra skipping port calls to manage congestion; prioritizing exports.
- JNPT (Nhava Sheva) facing ~20-hour road in/out delays and rail bottlenecks.
- Europe:
- Northern Europe ports (Hamburg, Antwerp, Bremerhaven) see yard overflow due to holiday schedules, rail work, and low river levels.
- Antwerp‑Bruges region particularly strained with long anchorage queues and rising interim storage costs.
Air Freight: Rates Steady, Volume Creeps Up
Air cargo markets are stabilizing:
- Global air freight spot rates are down ~4% YoY, but volumes rose 6% in May.
- China→U.S. lanes hold steady at $4.31/kg.
- However, U.S.→China exports are down ~14% YoY, highlighting directional imbalance and ongoing trade disruption.
Inland & Rail Transport: Tight Spots Emerging
- U.S.: Market remains oversupplied, but reefer and van capacity is tightening amid seasonal crop movements.
- India: Inland Container Depots are overloaded; drayage availability low; export operations at Mundra and JNPT severely delayed.
- Europe: Rail disruptions in Germany, UK, and Italy are diverting freight to roads—putting added pressure on trucking logistics and transit timelines.
India Logistics Focus: Infrastructure Stressed Amid Surge
India’s key export ports—Mundra and JNPT—are buckling under heavy volumes and equipment shortages:
- Mundra: Delays, skipped calls, and limited inland rail capacity.
- JNPT: Prolonged gate queues and trucking backlogs.
- Inland bottlenecks at ICDs remain unresolved, with extended container dwell times and equipment imbalances affecting inland cargo movement.
Cybersecurity: Maritime Threats Rising
A new wave of ransomware and GPS spoofing attacks is threatening global maritime operations. Key updates:
- Several port MIS systems (e.g., JNPT) flagged as vulnerable.
- Mariners report growing concern over ransomware on bridge and engine systems.
- Authorities urge rapid deployment of:
- Crew cyber-awareness training
- Navigation system hardening
- Vendor-level IT audits
Pro Tips for July Strategy
- Tariffs: Continue forward-booking ocean shipments to avoid possible tariff escalations.
- Ports: Allocate 3–5 days of transit buffer, especially for India and Northern Europe routings.
- Air vs. Ocean: Use air freight selectively for tariff-sensitive goods; expect further ocean rate drops post-peak.
- Cybersecurity: Initiate system checks at both port and vessel levels—focus on access controls, staff protocols, and endpoint monitoring.
Market Outlook
- Ocean Freight: Likely past its seasonal rate peak; demand could ease in Q3 with rates tapering.
- Air Cargo: Stable but cautious; export volumes may stay lopsided between U.S. and China.
- Trucking: Persistent tightness in key zones (India, parts of U.S.); monitor rail-to-road shifts in Europe due to infrastructure issues.
Geopolitical & Route Disruptions
- Haifa Port (Israel): Maersk suspended vessel calls from June 20 amid Israel–Iran conflict. Other services remain unaffected.
- Strait of Hormuz: Shipping speeds reduced to ~1/3rd normal as a security precaution—vessels self-regulating amid threats.
- UAE Tanker Incident (June 17): Two tankers collided and caught fire near Fujairah; suspected interference with navigation systems due to regional military activity.
Industry Moves & Infrastructure Updates
- India’s Vizhinjam Port handled its first UL-CV (MSC Irina, 24,346 TEU), signaling readiness for megaship operations.
- India is pushing for a global shipping liability regime, citing recent local incidents.
- Carrier GRIs:
- Swire Shipping & ANL raised rates due to container shortages.
- CMA CGM will apply revised tariffs on India → Central/South America routes from July 3.