A top UN economist has warned that global trade could contract by 3% due to tariffs imposed by the US. These tariffs could also lead to a shift in export patterns, with some countries increasing exports to India, Canada, and Brazil.
The US President Donald Trump announced a significant tariff plan, which was later followed by a 90-day pause on “reciprocal tariffs” for most countries, excluding China. In response, China decided to impose 125% tariffs on US imports.
The Executive Director of the International Trade Centre, Pamela Coke-Hamilton, highlighted that these trade actions could cause substantial long-term shifts in trade patterns and economic integration. For instance, Mexico is redirecting its exports away from the US, China, and Europe, towards Canada, Brazil, and to a lesser extent, India. Similarly, Vietnam is shifting its exports from the US, Mexico, and China towards the Middle East, North Africa, the EU, and Korea.